Earthquake prediction

Think out of the box- Earthquakes can be predicted

  THINK OUT OF THE BOX- Earthquakes can be predicted

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http://earthquake-predictionbyamitdave.webs.com/

   I am an engineer working in municipal corporation of Mumbai. I have been working on earthquake prediction from the past 15 years.The accuracy of date prediction for major quakes (>6.5) is fairly high(>80%). I would like to help people save their lives by predicting major quakes and eruptions. I believe that "The tectonic plates are due to earthquakes and that the earthquakes are not due to tectonic plates.". You will find here the theory of quakes and future prediction with updates on the topic. 

 THEORY OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

 ( A) First things first-at the outset, please forget the idea that, as this knowledge is based on  Astrology and hence it must be wrong, or baseless. The theory is based on pure science, specifically,.physics and on the effect of  Gravitational pull acting on two bodies .It requires a calculation of pull, mass1*mass2/ square of the distance between two objects.
It is also not correct that  the theory is only based soley on tidal forces. It also takes in to account the changes in Momentum, mass(v2-v1) of the molten magma due to either a change in direction of the major planets, or extreme speed of the planets. This occurs when planets change their direction,as we perceive it from Direct to Retro gate or from Retrogate to Direct.. Extreme speed of the planets also plays an important role in accelerating or retarding the momentum of a planets normal speed and extreme speed  and days of extreme speed which are mentioned below.

              Normal    Extreme        Days
Mars       31-26         46-11        15
mercury  59-08    131-32         10
Jupiter     5-0         14-04         45
Venus    59-08      75-42        1 0
Saturn   2-0         07-45         180

How to predict major earthquake
(a) First-We need to find  the month and date when major planets such as Jupiter and Saturn change their directions, or gain excessive speed. Venus and Mercury are also important in considering  for quakes of less intensity (<6.5)
(b) Second- Find  the dates 15 days before and after (a) above, when the moon acts as trigger by either joining ,opposing, or squaring  the planets that are changing  direction or the planet having excessive speed.
Also find the dates for full moon, new moon , low neap tide moon dates and the  times immediately before and after (a) above.as the moon is the main trigger the dates and times (+/- 2Hrs ) are fixed by the moon.. this is because moon takes 2 Hrs to move one degree
THESE ARE THE TIMES WHEN MAJOR QUAKES /ERUPTIONS /NATURAL DISASTERS are most likely to occur.
(C) Third- Location-The place depends on two things
Determining the  place accurately is very difficult, as it depends on time accuracy. If we miss 4 minutes, we are inaccurate by one degree of longitude. The line along the  resultant vector pull of all forces and the crust right above the pull at that time ,will decide the place or region where the  the quake will occur. .It is true that quakes occurs along fault the line ,but that is only because those are weaker sections. of the  Earth crust,which is like a skin.If the Earth crust  is solid the quake may be delayed for some time (2 to 4 Hrs ) till the weakness  comes right below a fault line. Or it may occur  little earlier depending on availability of weaker crust
THE PLATES AND FAULTS ARE DUE TO QUAKES AND QUAKES ARE NOT DUE TO PLATES. Plates and faults are effects of quakes and not cause of the quake
HOW DID  THE FIRST EVER QUAKE OCCURRED OR HOW WERE THE PLATES  SEPARATED BEFORE QUAKES EVER OCCURRED? For example ,On some given date (say,16th September 2008) there are lot of quakes all over the globe and on various plates that are  not related to each other. How do we explain this with Plate tectonics?
(d) Magnitude- The magnitude depends on several things which are

#One or more planets changing direction(for momentum change)
# Full moon ,New moon , low neap tide moon (for tidal force calculation)
#Planets having extreme speed ( for momentum change)
#Moon is at  perigee ( for tidal force calculation )
# Earth is nearest to Sun ( for tidal force calculation )
# Moon on equator ( for tidal force calculation )
# Moon and Sun are at extreme declination ( for momentum change )
#Aspects of other planets ( for tidal force calculation )
# Eclipse( occurs when sun and moon are in the same plane) ( for tidal force calculation)
(D) Earthquake cycle- Once the date and time of a major quake is forecast ,we need to observe the dates before and after the selected dates, to estimate dates for pre shocks and after-shocks. These will occur before and after 7- and- half days, 15 days , 23rd day and one Lunar month. This is because the moon takes yet another potent position after each 7-and-half days (90 Degrees movement). Please note these pre and after shock may not be at the same place.
That is why we must add  few more dates to our forecast .(and well in advance )
We also need to track and monitor the date from the event at least one month in advance and adjust the dates according to pre-shock signals.

(i) cyclone theory and Volcanic Eruption theory The tidal forces with change in momentum also applies to atmosphere and moisture in the air. The high tide line creates high pressure and low tide line creates low pressure zone in the atmosphere. The more the tidal force ,the more the low pressure zone. This pressure difference creates high speed winds. If it happen to be ocean with 26-27 degree temp band, over which the winds blows it may create a cyclone.

 If he tidal force of molten magma is more, it can open up a dormant volcano.

Thus dates given here are prone for natural disasters 


 (iii) 100 % prediction- Why do we need 100 % prediction at initial stage? Why do we need either 0% or 100 % prediction ? Why we can not progress smoothly?
Forget earthquake prediction. Do we have cent percent weather forecast? Can we predict cloud burst with accuracy ,despite having Doppler Radar? Can we predict land fall of cyclones ,despite having satellite images with 72 hours lead time ? Why only sciences have liberty to learn from error? or self correction? Are we hypocrites? Are we working blind folded in the name of science? Do we have keyhole view of the problem? Are we not ready to think out of the box?

Amit dave

 

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   Accuracy of previous earthquake prediction - Year 2009

please see my blog

http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/           dated 10th June 2010

 During year 2009 total  30  prediction of 6+ quakes were made

Out of which there are only 5 misses.

rest of all 6+ quakes have occurred on date (+ or - one day )

Amit

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 Declinations and major /frequent quakes

hi
I am aware that ,by opening this blog and proposing this hypothesis ,I may be opening a big debate. I may not be able to prove it right now ,but this is a simple hypothesis based on observations
Earth moves with 23 and half degree NE declined. Moons maximum declination is 24 degrees North or South. Hence,23+24 =47 degrees North maximum declination. Similarly 23-24 =-1 degrees.Major quakes generally occurs during maximum or zero declination of Moon.This is because from maximum declinations Moon changes the declination and hence momentum change in molten magma.
The maximum and major earthquakes occur at 37 to 57 degrees North as well as south(47+ or -10 degrees)(As tidal pull applies diagonally it replicate at south also). Regarding -1 position ,the major and frequent quakes occur at 9 degrees North to 11 degrees South(-1 + or -10 degrees)
These are just observations and no stats or mathematical calculations are done yet.
I believe,,this is the reason why we have potent and frequent quakes at these places
open for criticism
Regards

 

 MY 6.5+ EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION AND ACTUAL QUAKES  (2006 TO 2013)

SR NO DATE PREDICTED NAG, PREDICTED ACTUAL QUAKES + OR - ONE DAY Roger list sr number remark
1 19-11-2006 6.5 -22 1
2 11/12/2006 7.2 -40 2
3 18-12-2006 6.9 0 3
4 24-12-2006 6.4 0 4
5 8/4/2007 7.5 0 5
6 24-04-2007 7.5 0 6
7 28-04-2007 7.5 0 7
8 2/5/2007 7.5 0 8
9 10/5/2007 7.8 0 8
10 16-06-2007- 7 0 9
11 13-08-2007 7 0 3
12 22.8-2007 7 0 14
13 22-12-2007 7 0 15
14 29-12-2007 7 0 16
15 4/5/2008 8 0 17
16 5/5/2008 8 0 18
17 10/5/2008 8 6.8 on 10-05-2008 19
18 13-05-2008 8 7.9 on12-05-2008 20
19 17-05-2008 8 0 21
20 20-05-2008 8 0 22
21 20-10-2008 6.9 6.9 on 19-10 27
22 2/1/2009 6 7.6 on 3-01-2009 29
23 4/1/2009 7.2 ditto 30
24 11/1/2009 7.1 0 31 12-01 not taken 
25 15-01-09 7.4 7.4, 6.7 on 15-01-09 33
26 26-01-09 6.9 0 35
27 9/2/2009 7.1 0 36
28 4/3/2009 6.6 0 37
29 6/3/2009 6.9 0 38
30 15-04-09 6.5 6.7 on 16-04 39
31 22-04-09 6.7 0 40
32 9/5/2009 6.6 0 41
33 18-05-09 7.2 0 42 an d 43
34 24-05-09 6.7 0 44
35 6/6/2009 6.8 0 45
36 13-06-09 6.5 0 46 mag taken 7
37 16-06-09 6.5 0 47 mag taken 7.2
38 20-06-09 6.5 0 48 mag taken 7.1
39 22-06-09 6.5 0 49 ditto 7.4
40 3/10/2009 6.5 0 51
41 11/10/2009 6.8 0 53
42 13-10-09 7 0 54
43 24-10-09 7 7.0  on24-10 0 roger have not taken
44 18-10-09 6.9 0 55
45 24-12-09 6.6 0 58
46 26-12-2009 6.5 0 59
47 1/1/2010 7.2 0 60
48 3/1/2010 7 7.1 and 6.5 on 3-01-2010 61
49 15-01-10 6.7 0 62
50 18-01-10 6.6 0 63
51 30.01.10 6.5 0 64
52 15-02-2010 6.6 0 65
53 28-02-10 6.8 8.8 and 6.9 on 27-02 66
54 11/3/2010 6.5 7.2 and 6.9 on 11-03-2010 67
55 15-03-10 6.9 6.6 and 6.5 on 14-03 68
56 29-03-10 7 6.6 on 30-03 69
57 11/4/2010 6.5 6.8 on 11-04-2010 70
58 25-04-10 6.6 6.5 on 26-4-10 71
59 20-05-10 6.6 0 73
60 23-05-10 7 6.5 on 24-05-10 74
61 27-05-10 7 7.2 on 27-05-10 75
62 29-05-10 7 0 76
63 5/6/2010 7.1 0 77
64 12/6/2010 7.1 7.5 on 12-0610 79
65 22-06-10 7.1 6.7 on 26-06-10 80
66 4/7/2010 6.8 0 81
67 11/7/2010 6.8 0 82
68 16-07-10 7.1 0 83
69 23-07-10 6.9 7.4 and 7.3 on 23-07-2010 84
70 26-07-2010 7.1 0 85
71 31-07-10 6.5 0 86
72 10/8/2010 7 7.3 on 10-08-2010 87
73 7/8/2010 6.8 0 not taken by roger
74 12/8/2010 7.3 7.1 and 6.9 on 12 and 13th -08-10 88
75 24-08-2010 7 0 89
76 27-08-10 7.4 0 90
77 1/9/2010 7 0 91
78 3/9/2010 7.3 7 on 3-09-10 92
79 8/9/2010 7.6 0 93
80 15-09-10 6.6 0 94
81 23-09-10 7.2 0 95
82 30-09-2010 6.9 7.2 on 29-09-2010 96
83 6/10/2010 6.6 0 97
84 9th oct 2010 6.6 0 98
85 20-10-2010 6.9 6.7 on 21-10-2010 99
86 23-10-2010 6.7 0 100
87 2/11/2010 6.6 0 101
88 16-11-2010 7 0 102
89 21-11-2010 6.8 0 103
90 23-11-2010 6.7 0 104
91 29-11-2010 6.7 6.8 on 30-11-2010 105
92 6/12/2010 6.6 0 106
93 21-12-2010 6.8 6.5 on 20-12-2010 107
94 27-12-2010 6.7- 0 108
95 19-01-2011 7 7.2 on 18-01-2011 109
96 25-01-2011 7 0 110
97 19/2/2011 7 0 111
98 21-02-2011 7 6.5 on 21-02-2011 112
99 20-03-2011 7.5 0 113
100 8/4/2011 6.5 7.1 on 7-04-2011 not taken by roger
101 11/4/2011 6.5 6.7 on 11 -04-2011 not taken by roger
102 17-04-2011 6.5 6.6 on 18-04-2011 115
103 7/5/2011 6.8 0 116
104 16-05-2011 6.9 6.6 on 16-05-2011 117
105 29-05-2011 6.7 0 118
106 12/6/2011 6.5 0 120
107 15-06-2011 7 6.5 on 16-06-2011 121 and 122
108 30-06-2011 7 0 123 and 124
109 9/7/2011 7 7.1 on10-07-2011 125
110 31-07-2011 6.5 6.7 on 31-07-2011 126
111 6/8/2011 6.5 0 127
112 13-08-2011 6.8 0 128
113 22-08-2011 7 0 not taken by roger
114 29-08-2011 7.1 6.8 on 30-08-2011 not taken by roger
115 2/9/2011 6.8 6.5 and 6.8 on 2-09-2011 130
116 5/9/2011 6.5 6.6 on 5-09-2011 131
117 12/9/2011 7 0 132
118 28-09-2011 7.2 0 133 and 134
119 21-10-2011 6.6 7.4 on 21-10-2011 137
120 27-10-2011 6.9 6.9 on 28-10-2011 138 ad 139
121 13-11-2011 6.5 0 141
122 25-11-2011 6.7 0 142 and 143
123 10/12/2011 6.5 6.7 on 11-12-2011 145
124 20-12-2011 6.6 0 147
125 24-12-2011 6.9 0 148
126 9/1/2012 6.5 6.6 on 9-01 and 7.2 on 10-01-2012 150
127 19-01-2012 6.6 0 151 and 152
128 12/2/2012 6.5 0 154
129 8-032012 6.7 6.7 on 9-03-2012 158
130 15-03-2012 6.5 6.9 on 14-03-2012 159 and 160
131 7/4/2012 6.5 0 162 and 163
132 6/5/2012 6.8 0 166
133 8/5/2012 6.6 0 167
134 22-05-2012 6.5 0 169
135 4/6/2012 6.6 0 171
136 10/6/2012 6.5 0 172
137 29-06-2012 6.6 0 175
138 3/7/2012 7.1 0 177 and 178
139 29-07-2012 6.8 6.5 on 28-07-2012 not taken by roger
140 25-08-2012 6.6 6.6 on 26-08-2012 180 and 181
141 8/9/2012 6.6 0 183
142 23-09-2012 6.7 0 186 and 187
143 19-10-2012 6.8 0 189
144 15-11-2012 7 6.5 on 16-11-2012 191 and 192
145 13-12-2012 7.1 0 194
146 27-12-2012 6.8 0 196
147 10/1/2013 7 0 199
148 23-01-2013 6.5 0 201
149 6/2/2013 7 7.9,7.1 and 7.0 on 6-02-2013 203 and 204
150 18-02-2013 6.5 0 206
151 21-02-2013 6.6 0 207
152 6/3/2013 6.5 0 not taken by roger
153 1/4/2013 6.8 0 210 and 211
154 27-05-2013 6.6 0 214 and 215
155 8/6/2013 6.7 0 216
156 24-06-2013 7 6.5 on 24-06-2013 218 and 219
157 22-07-2013 6.6 6.5 on 21-07-2013 222
158 14-09-2013 6.5 0 224 and 225
159 11/10/2013 6.7 0 229 and 230
160 18-10-2013 6.6 6.5 on 19-10-2013 231

 

 

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