Earthquake prediction

Think out of the box- Earthquakes can be predicted

Forums

Post Reply
Forum Home > General Discussion > Thanks Amit, for your insights, here's some of mine..

[email protected]
Member
Posts: 1

Hello Amit,

 

Thank you for approving my registration at your site.  I wish to thank you for some of your insights that you were good enough to share.  Because of that I am now considering days when Mercury parallels Uranus (when I estimate that earthquakes are about twice as likely to occur).  I have been predicting earthquakes for the past year based on a large database of earthquake charts (now at almost 500 charts).  My best success so far was during the month of September 2012, when I mapped out 3 windows (taking up 23% of that month's time) when 6.5 magnitude or greater earthquakes would occur and the only two such quakes to happen during that month fell inside two of my windows.  One new angle that I am using is 'neutralizer aspects' such as days when the sun and Jupiter are in a trine aspect.  On such days earthquakes are less likely to occur and that now effects my predictions as well.  I notice that you are predicting an earthquake on 1/27 of 6.4 magnitude (give or take 0.3).  At the same time, my research indicates that there are three neutralizing aspects occurring during 1/25-1/27/13, which may interfere with your prediction.   

 

I would like to recommend, instead of attempting to predict the size of quakes on a given day, that you try my method of stating only that a significant event would occur on or near the date predicted.  One reason for the suggestion is the observation that 6.0 to 6.4 magnitude events happen on average once every three days.  In other words, since your windows are usually 3 days wide, predictions that indicate an earthquake in that size range should give results as good as if you were using random dates.  Put another way, I feel that your results are getting drowned out by common occurrences or that the signal of significance is being cancelled out by the noise of random events.

 

I have analyzed your prediction dates for 2011 and 2012, comparing them to actual events and confirmed that there is more significance (although not significant enough to satisfy a statistician) when comparing your dates to significant events rather than for those that also include quakes below 6.5 magnitude.

 

If you would like to check out some of my work, you can find my hubs posted at http://retrojoe.hubpages.com/

 

Best regards, Joseph

 

 

January 2, 2013 at 11:47 AM Flag Quote & Reply

You must login to post.