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Yes. Major ( 6+) earthquakes can be predicted with fair amount of accuracy.With + or - one day window period,accuracy of major quakes (6+) can be as high as 80%.
Past record of 6+ quakes prediction for the year 2009 is as follows
Dates predicted ---30
Hit dates ------------25
Miss dates ---------5
On an average there are 150 odd earthquakes of 6+ magnitude all over the globe
7.0 to 7.9---15
This theory is based on two aspects
1) Momentum change of molten magma
2)Tidal force acting in molten magma
When major planets like Jupiter ,Saturn,Venus and Mars changes the direction from direct to retrogate or from retrogate to direct,they create an imbalance in the molten magma inside the crust.It is like accelaration or breaking effect on the magma
Now ,when above situation occurs and Moon Joins(0 degree),opposes(180 degrees) or squares (90 or 270 degrees) ,the planet which is changing the direction or the Sun, major quakes occur.
The answer is Yes and No.
Moon is the closest body to the earth and have 2.5 times more pull than Sun.It is the main trigger of all seismic activities,quakes as well as volcanic eruptions Major quakes (7+) do occur on full Moom or New Moon. However.there are quakes on dates other than full moon or new moon. Thus ,all full moon or new moon do not give major quakes. For major quakes to occur momentum change is basic requirement.
Thus ,when major planets changes the direction and Moon joins,opposes or squares either the planet or Sun ,major quakes occur
Nevertheless, Moon is the main trigger of all major quakes. Date and time of quakes are fixed with respect to Moon movement and positions
please note yet another proof of -cycle quake theory-
My cycle quake theory states-
If there is a prone date, which is fixed as per my theory, the dates/days 15th days and 7/8th days before and after (predicted date)are also prone for quakes.
Note quakes in November 2010 are
3rd,10th,16/17 th ,23rd and 30th November. All quakes were more than 6.0 (except on 16/17 th -5.9)
This happens due to various position of Moon ( a main trigger in earthquakes)
Let one date is fixed as main quake date ( as per theory). Now ,as Moon moves 90 degrees every 7 days (approx),before and after evrey 7 and half days, it occupies yet another similar ,but less potent location.
Thus cycle quakes occur
In fact, it is easiest way to predict a major after shock ,at a place ,where a major quake (7+) have already occurred.
I would go to the extent of saying, people should be warned ,on 7/8th day and 14/15th day for aftershock after a major quake of 7+
please see the link fortidal force calculation
please note the amount of tidal forces mentioned below.
1)Moon feels from Earth-------(1.82)*(10)raised to 18 N
2)Earth feels from Moon-------(6.69)*(10)raised to 18 N
3)Earth feels from Sun---------(3.02)*(10)raised to 18 N
please note that the tidal force of Moon on Earth is more (3.5times)than ,the force of Earth on Moon.This is because Earth is bigger andhence bigger differential force.
Now,the question is -
If we(scientists) agrees that the Moonquakes are mainly due to tidal forceof Earth,How and why we do not believe that the Moon can trigger tidalforce induced earthquakes(which is 3.5 times more)?
If any one have specifice reason ,please let me know
Tidal force theory can be extended to various layer, in the same plane ,like
1) Force acting on molten lava creates major earthquakes
2) Force acting n crust produces ,ruptures and hence ,volcanic eruptions
3) Force acting on oceans creates major tides
4) force acting on atmosphere and clouds produces downpours and cyclones
That is why , the dates prone to major earthquakes are also prone to all these natural calamities
Magnitude of a quake depends on several other factors(the major factor being aspects of Moon with the planet changing direction and Moon aspects with Sun) like
1.Moon closest to earth (perigee)
2.Moon on equator
3. Moon at extreme declinations
4. Major planet closest to earth
5. Sun and Moon on same declination
6. Other planets in close aspects
7. Earth crust below the resultant pull line (ie plate boundary or not)
8.Sun at equator
9. Rate of accelaration or retardation of planet changing the direction
10.Earth closer to Sun
Plate tctonic can not explain -Intra plate quakes (quakes occuring at places other than plate boundries)
It can not explain why some dates are prone to several major quakes? ie why there are clusters of quakes?
There are several major quakes from 27th February 2010 to 28th February. There are questions for plate tectonics here
1) Why there are major quakes on some particular date?
2) How these quakes,on different plates can be explained ,if they occur on the same date?
3) How the stresses on different plates are released on a single day?
4) How the first break in plate occurred?Due to heat currents of molten magma?
The earth crust would not have solidified at he place where splitting heat currents were already present.
yes,quakes do occur on plate boundaries and that ,there are plates and they are moving. But the fact is
1) Plate boundaries are weaker sections and hence they break earlier due to tidal force.
2) Plates are due to quake and quakes are not due to plates
In principle , this mehod can predict major quakes (6+),with +or - 2 Hrs accuracy.
This is because,the main trigger, Moon , moves one degree every 2 Hrs.
Hence ,when Moon Joins,opposes or squares (to the degrees accurcy)
planet changing the direction or Sun,quakes occur
In principle ,this can be done. The place will be the point through which the resulantant pull of Moon Sun and planets passes.
If the accurcy of time is not less than + or - 2Hrs ,the place on earh changes( evry 4 Minutes)
Besides ,the earth crust at that time also play major role. If the crust is strong at given time ,it will not rupture.On the other hand it gives quakes ,before time ,if the crust is weak (ie plate boundries)
It is true that the quakes generally
occurs at fault levels or say at Ring of fire,except one two cases like one at Latur -India on 30Th September 1993.
However,this is only because ,the earth crust is weaker at boundaries and any pull will rupture it first (like a weakest link in a chain breaks first)
Thus, I believe, there were quakes first on earth ,then ruptures then plates and later plate motions.
What we are doing is treating effect ( plates ) as the cause of quakes.
please see the link ,published in Times of India, which poses some question to Plate tectonics
some question to plate tectonics
1) why quakes at places not on boundaries?
2) why clusters (more major quakes on given date/s)?
3) Why two or more quakes on plate boundaries not related to each other on a given date?
4) How the first plates separated from each other? If it was due to heat currents , those currents would not have allowed the plate to formed at that place first
5) Have any body calculated the force required to break open the earth crust of some hundred kilometer thick? Can heat current produce such force?
6) Why there are pre-shocks before a major quake?
Plate tectonics need to answer such questions before it can predict the earthquakes
Yesterday, I was trying to figure out the force required to move a tectonic plate from stanstill. I could not find the solution
Following data is available
1. A major plate say Euresia
2. We have ,area,volume, approx density and haence weight and mass of the plate
3.We have coefficient of friction ,between solid to solid.
4.Assumung the plate free to move in any direction without any obstraction (which is not the case),how much force will it require to move from stanstill position by overcomming intial intertia?
5. How much force is generated by heat currents of solid mentle?
6.will it be sufficient to move the plate ,which is obstructed and opposed by another plate?
7. How much force is required to fold the earth cruct and form Himalya?
If anyone have calculated the force equilibrium pl let me know.
Here are some thumb rules whereby any one can predict the major earthquakes (>6.5) to fair amount of accuracy
1) find out the date/s when either Jupiter or Saturn , venus or Mars is changing the direction from direct to retro gate or vice a versa.
2) 15 days before and 15 days after this date is the window period for major quakes.
3) find the date when moon either joins/opposes or squares this planet or Sun.
4)watch out for Full moon and new moon in this window period
5) If both Jupiter and Saturn are changing the direction with in a span of 4/5 days the quake/s would be even more than 8.0
6) magnitude can be fine tuned depending upon proximity of Moon, Jupiter and Saturn.
7) Earth closer to Sun, Moon on equator, aspects of planets can be used to fine tune the magnitude.
Actualy planets do not move backwards in terms of their absolute motions.
However, the relative motion with respect to Earth varies. Thus when relative motion reduces it appears to be stopping one day in the sky and than moving backwards.
Such change in directions,though apperent, give retarding (breaking )effect or accelartion .This in turn creates imbalance in the internal lava.
It is like the force we notice when the car is suddenly applied with brakes.
For detail please refer wikipedia
For details please see wikipedia
How much quake 6.0 is powerful than quake of 5.0?
Answer is 10 times
Ritchter scale is logaithamic scale
Thus quake of 7.0 is 100 times powerful than that of 5.0
And quake of 8.0 Ritcher scale is 1000 times powerful than 5.0
You can see my predictions in up comming events OR Calender
Eclipse is basiclly full moon or new moon. Thus ,they themseve are not able to produce quakes. However ,if other things are present,eclipses give quakes mor potent. This is because on eclipse day Sun ,moon and Earth are not only in aspects but are in the same plane.(because the shadow of one covers the other)
Yes. Moon has maximum gravitation effect on Earth. Sun has little less (approx 2.5 times less ) effect.
Moon is the main trigger in inducing the quakes.
Now ,When Major planets like Jupiter, Venus and Saturn when changes directions,it creates imbalance inside the crust. It is like breaking or accelerating effect on molten magma inside the crust.(similar force noticed when brake or accelerator is applied in a car)
Thus when following things are present major quakes (6.5+) occurs.
These things are stated in order of importance ie in descending order.
1) Major planets changing the direction. If two or more planets changes the direction in short span of two/three days ,the quake could be 7+
2) Moon at Perigee
3) Full Mon or New Moon
4) Moon at o,90,180 or 270 degree with the planet changing the direction
5)Jupiter ,Venus or Mars closer to Earth
6)Moon at Equator
7) Major planets in aspects with each other (0,90,180 or 270) degrees )
8)Moon at extreme declination
The date and time is fixed when trigger ,Moon, enters 0,90,180or 270 degrees with the Sun or planet changing the direction
Thus a huge (8) quake is expected
1) Two or more major planets changes the directions on same day
2) Moon at perigee
3)Full Moon or New Moon
4) Jupiter ,Venus Saturn and Mars are at closest position to Earth
5) Sun and Moon at same declinations
6) Sun ,Jupiter Saturn and Venus are in close aspects (0,90,180, or 270 degrees )
Watch 21st to 23 rd December 2010 for 6.5 earthquake)
Yes.It is true.
Earthquakes occur due to full Moon ,New Moon and Moon at perigee?
But Plate tectonics dose not say that.it is only the stresses build up on plate boundaries.
We(plate tectonics) also agree that,Moon quakes occurs due to Earth tidal force.But we(plate tectonics) are not ready to believe that ,Moon could be Main trigger in inducing major quakes
In fact Earth tidal pull on Moon is far less than Moon tidal pull on Earth.
This is because tidal pull is ot simply gravitational pull,it is differential gravitational pull.
As the size of Earth is much more ,the differential pull is more on Earth.
First let plate tectonic supporters and seismologist believe that, Moon is the main trigger,when other potential combination exists.
No. all Full Moon ,New Moon or all perigee do not give major quakes? Any body have ever have such queaon?
For Full Moon ,New Moon and perigee to work ,certains basic things required
1)Major planets changing the directions. If two or more changes in short span ,a major quake occurs.If both changes direction in the same direction (ie direct or retrogate) quake could be major
2) Distances of planets changing the direction.The closer they are severe the quake
3) Aspects of major planets (0,90,180 or 270 degrees among each other
4)Moo at equater or at extreme declination
If these are present (not necessarily all )Full Moon ,New Moon and perigee can give severe quakes
Time and again it is proved that, Moon at perigee,fastest and with any other combination may induce major quake. This time Mars is also fastest.
Though,in fact, I did not expect this nuch quake. Actaly my preidction next was between 27th and 28 th Dcember 2010 (around 6.3 to 6.6)
I failed to understand ,why and how ,plate tectonic theory says , major earthquakes are not due to tidal pull.
In fact,the Moon quakes are believed to be induced by Earths tidal pull,but not vice versa.
More interesting thing is Moons tidal pull on Earth is far more than Earths tidal pull on Moon.
please see my blog page
When Moon is at apogee,ie far away ,it iwill also have minimum speed. It can give quakes if there is any other potent combination present at that time.
The quakes may not be 7+ also
As the thaeory is based on tidal pull and momentum change of molten magma,major quakes(7+) generaly occur with
1) Major planet changingthe direction
2) Moon at perigee
3)Full Moon ,new Moonor neap tide
4) Major planet close to earth and in aspects with each oyher(0,90,180 or 270 degrees with each other)